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Poker table 3 of spades

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There are 9 people at this table, so 18 hole cards have been dealt. Since there are 47 cards remaining and 9 of them are spades, the next card will be a spade 19% of the time. A deck contains 52 cards, and I can see the 3 in the flop, plus my 2 hole cards. There are 13 spades, I know the location of 4 of them.

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Conventional thinking goes something like this…

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Let’s say your hole cards are both spades, and 2 more spades come on the flop. It’s a minor statistical anomaly that I’ve been thinking about lately, and yes, I do have way too much time on my hands. I will start by saying this isn’t a game changer either way.

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